NOLO TAKES AIM AT HAWAII — STORM COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
Tropical Storm Nolo is rapidly strengthening south of Hawaii, and forecasters are warning that the storm could become a major hurricane as it approaches the Big Island this weekend.
As of Thursday afternoon, Nolo had maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph and was located roughly 285 miles south of South Point on the Big Island. NOAA’s National Hurricane Center says Nolo is expected to become a hurricane tonight and could reach major-hurricane strength by the weekend.
The storm is moving slowly northward, bringing Hawaii an increasing threat of very heavy rain, flooding, dangerous surf and strong winds.
The Big Island is in the crosshairs
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Hawaii County, while a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Big Island. Tropical Storm Watches have also been issued for portions of Maui County, including Maui, Molokai and Lanai.
NOAA’s forecast calls for Nolo to move northward toward the Big Island before turning more westward later in the weekend. The exact track remains uncertain, which is especially important because even a relatively small shift could change which islands experience the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall.
Flooding may become the biggest threat
Rain could begin increasing across the Big Island Thursday night before spreading toward Maui.
The National Weather Service has a Flood Watch covering the Big Island, Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe. Forecasters say windward and southeastern portions of the Big Island are particularly vulnerable to significant flooding, while steep terrain could also see landslides and mudslides.
Current forecasts call for 15–30 inches of rain across parts of the Big Island, with locally higher totals possible, while Maui could also receive significant rainfall.
A historic close approach?
Meteorologists are watching Nolo closely because of how close the storm could pass to Hawaii.
Some forecasts have shown Nolo becoming a Category 3 hurricane, with winds around 115–120 mph, while other forecast solutions have kept the center farther offshore. Those higher-end intensity numbers should be treated as forecast possibilities rather than a certainty.
The Weather Channel reports that Nolo could become the strongest storm to pass this close to the Big Island since the late 1950s. Nolo would also be Hawaii’s fourth tropical system of the 2026 season.
For now, the message from forecasters is clear: Hawaii residents should not focus solely on the center of the forecast cone. Heavy rainfall and dangerous conditions can extend well away from the storm’s center.
Nolo is still evolving, and the next several forecast updates could significantly change the expected impacts.
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