By Jazz Bishop | September 4, 2026
Hurricane Lowell has become a rapidly evolving Central Pacific hurricane story, and the biggest concern is no longer simply how strong the storm is — it is where Lowell is going next.
After tracking generally westward across the Central Pacific, Lowell is forecast to make an abrupt northward turn this weekend, bringing the powerful hurricane considerably closer to the Hawaiian Islands than its earlier westward trajectory suggested. The National Weather Service in Honolulu says the eventual impacts could range from minor to major depending largely on exactly when and where that turn occurs.
LATEST: Lowell Remains a Powerful Category 4
As of the latest National Hurricane Center/Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisory available early September 4, Lowell was near 13.5°N, 158.9°W, with maximum sustained winds of approximately 130 mph. The hurricane was moving westward.
That puts Lowell several hundred miles south of the Hawaiian Islands, but the distance alone is becoming less reassuring because of the projected change in direction.
The key forecast evolution is this:
WEST → NORTHWEST/NORTH
The NWS Honolulu forecast discussion says Lowell is expected to continue moving west through Friday night before making an abrupt northward turn Saturday, with forward speed increasing.
That turn is the reason Hawaii has moved into the center of attention.
The Track Change Is the Story
Earlier in Lowell’s life cycle, a continued westward movement would have carried the hurricane farther away from the Hawaiian Islands.
Instead, the steering pattern is changing.
A strong subtropical high to the north is interacting with Lowell, producing a tight pressure gradient and already generating strong trade winds across Hawaii. At the same time, the larger-scale atmospheric pattern is expected to cause Lowell to turn northward.
This is an important lesson in tropical forecasting: a hurricane hundreds of miles away can become a substantially different threat when the steering currents change.
And with Lowell, the difference between a turn occurring slightly earlier or later could translate into a major difference in impacts across Hawaii.
The Honolulu NWS office specifically says the eventual impacts could range from minor to major, depending on the storm’s eventual path and, particularly, the timing of the northward turn.
Hawaii Is Now in the Forecast’s Crosshairs
The current forecast brings Lowell toward the western end of the main Hawaiian Islands late Sunday into Monday, with the greatest concern increasingly focused on Kauai County and the western portion of the state.
The NWS Honolulu forecast says Lowell could come closest to Kauai County Monday night and is currently forecast to be around Category 3 strength at closest approach.
That does not mean a Category 3 landfall on Kauai is currently guaranteed.
Far from it.
Forecasters continue to emphasize uncertainty in the exact track.
But it does mean Hawaii cannot afford to dismiss Lowell simply because the center is currently south of the islands.
Surf May Become a Major Problem
Hawaii is already feeling Lowell’s influence before the hurricane’s center gets close.
The National Weather Service has a High Surf Advisory covering south- and southeast-facing exposures, with breaking waves reaching approximately 12 feet in affected areas.
And the bigger concern is still ahead.
NWS Honolulu says Lowell could generate extra-large surf, potentially exceeding warning levels, along south and western exposures early next week.
That threat becomes even more important because monthly high tides are expected Monday.
The combination of large waves, elevated water levels and high tides could create dangerous conditions around:
- Harbor entrances
- Channels
- Coastal roads
- Low-lying coastal property
- Beaches
- Coastal infrastructure
This is one of the reasons people should not focus exclusively on the hurricane’s maximum wind speed.
You don’t have to experience a direct eyewall hit to experience dangerous hurricane-related conditions.
Hawaii Is Already Seeing Strong Winds
The pressure difference between Lowell and the subtropical high is already strengthening the trade winds.
NWS Honolulu reported sustained winds of 20–30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph in portions of Oahu, Maui County and the Big Island.
A Wind Advisory was in effect for numerous areas, while a Small Craft Advisory covered Hawaiian waters.
That means Hawaii is already experiencing the atmospheric effects associated with Lowell even though the hurricane itself remains offshore.
Rain and Flooding: Another Concern
The exact rainfall threat remains highly dependent on Lowell’s eventual track.
That distinction is important.
It would be premature to publish a single rainfall total for all of Hawaii because the distribution of rain could change dramatically with only a relatively small shift in Lowell’s track.
However, NWS Honolulu is explicitly highlighting the possibility of:
Heavy rainfall + flooding + strong winds + high surf + coastal inundation
with the greatest potential impacts toward the western Hawaiian Islands.
Mountainous terrain adds another concern: tropical moisture interacting with Hawaii’s steep terrain can produce intense rainfall and localized flooding even when the center of a tropical cyclone remains offshore.
Why Lowell’s Turn Matters So Much
Think of the forecast like a highway.
Lowell was essentially traveling west along one atmospheric “road.”
Now the atmospheric roads around the hurricane are changing.
The hurricane doesn’t decide where it goes. Instead, large-scale features — particularly surrounding areas of high and low pressure and the winds through the atmosphere — steer the circulation.
NWS Honolulu describes the upcoming pattern as Lowell moving westward through Friday night, followed by the abrupt northward turn Saturday.
That creates a high-sensitivity forecast.
A turn northward sooner could pull Lowell closer to the islands.
A later turn could keep the strongest winds farther offshore.
That is why the forecast cone is so important — and why people should not treat the center line as a guaranteed track.
The Cone Does NOT Mean Hawaii Will Be Spared
One of the most commonly misunderstood hurricane graphics is the forecast cone.
The cone represents the probable path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It does not represent the complete area that will experience dangerous weather.
Wind, rain, surf and flooding can extend well outside the cone.
For Hawaii, that distinction is particularly important because a storm can pass offshore while still producing dangerous ocean conditions and significant weather.
What Happens Next?
Friday
Lowell is expected to continue generally westward while Hawaii remains under the influence of strong pressure gradients and enhanced trade winds.
Saturday
The major forecast transition occurs.
Lowell is expected to make its abrupt northward turn and accelerate.
Sunday
The storm begins approaching the western Hawaiian region, with increasing concern for worsening marine and coastal conditions.
Monday into Monday night
This is currently the period of greatest concern.
The NWS forecast indicates Lowell could make its closest approach near Kauai County Monday night, with the hurricane forecast around Category 3 strength at that time.
Again, this is a forecast, not a guarantee of landfall.
Hawaii Should Prepare Before the Track Is Certain
The time to prepare for a potentially dangerous hurricane is before the forecast becomes certain.
Anyone in Hawaii should monitor official updates, especially residents of the western islands and coastal communities.
That means securing outdoor objects, reviewing evacuation plans, checking emergency supplies and paying close attention to official warnings.
For boaters, the situation is particularly serious. Hawaiian coastal waters are already experiencing elevated seas, and the marine forecast calls for potentially dangerous conditions as Lowell approaches.
And for beachgoers:
Do not underestimate the ocean.
The increased swell from Lowell can make conditions dangerous well before the hurricane arrives.
The Bottom Line
Hurricane Lowell’s story has changed dramatically because the track has changed.
A storm that was expected to continue primarily westward is now forecast to make a sharp northward turn, potentially bringing a powerful hurricane much closer to Hawaii.
The latest forecast does not establish a certain Hawaiian landfall.
But it does establish something equally important:
Hawaii has a legitimate and potentially significant hurricane threat that requires close monitoring.
The next several forecast cycles will be critical.
The exact timing of Lowell’s northward turn could determine whether Hawaii experiences mainly large surf and strong winds, or a much more serious combination of hurricane-force winds, heavy rainfall, flooding and coastal inundation.
For now, the message from forecasters is straightforward:
Don’t panic — but don’t wait.
Lowell is still far enough away that the forecast can change.
That is precisely why residents should be watching it now.
.
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